Monday, June 06, 2005
Orbusmax prediction for the WA Governor trial election: Judge Bridges to rule against the GOP
There was plenty of evidence of mistakes, incompetence... and some signs of individual fraud, mostly in King County. The problem for the Rossi team is the bar that was set in the beginning - not just that illegal votes were cast or that errors were made, but that there is concrete proof of which votes harmed or helped which candidate. As good a job as the GOP did of showing just how screwed up King County's election system is (and the Democrats helped highlight the problems as well - expect the judge to refer to all this in his ruling Monday Morning), it just feels to me like it wasn't enough. The key argument of the GOP, "proportional deduction" of illegal votes from both Gregoire and Rossi totals, worked in showing that it's virtually impossible to tell who actually won the election - but it doesn't show which individual votes would need to be removed from the totals. Statistically-speaking, Rossi has a strong argument. I just don't think it meets up with the criteria the Judge said he wanted, at the beginning of the trial. It's possible he changed his thinking over the weekend on this, but I wouldn't count on it.
With all the evidence and testimony that was allowed during the trial, with the apparant thoroughness by Judge Bridges, and with the fact that a Gregoire-friendly State Supreme Court seems unlikely to overrule, the election of '04 comes should come to close after nearly 7 months of political tug-of-war. Congratulations Governor Gregoire, looks like your healing tour will continue.
An observation and suggestion: a lot was made about how mistakes and errors are bound to happen in King County because it's the largest in the state - almost forecasting that future elections will have errors, and that's just the way it will be. Yet other smaller counties around the state showed they could conduct elections error-free, accurate to 100%. Well it sounds like the case has been clearly made to help out poor old King - by breaking it up. Cascade County might be the solution to help make sure the state of Washington doesn't have to go through this again.
There was plenty of evidence of mistakes, incompetence... and some signs of individual fraud, mostly in King County. The problem for the Rossi team is the bar that was set in the beginning - not just that illegal votes were cast or that errors were made, but that there is concrete proof of which votes harmed or helped which candidate. As good a job as the GOP did of showing just how screwed up King County's election system is (and the Democrats helped highlight the problems as well - expect the judge to refer to all this in his ruling Monday Morning), it just feels to me like it wasn't enough. The key argument of the GOP, "proportional deduction" of illegal votes from both Gregoire and Rossi totals, worked in showing that it's virtually impossible to tell who actually won the election - but it doesn't show which individual votes would need to be removed from the totals. Statistically-speaking, Rossi has a strong argument. I just don't think it meets up with the criteria the Judge said he wanted, at the beginning of the trial. It's possible he changed his thinking over the weekend on this, but I wouldn't count on it.
With all the evidence and testimony that was allowed during the trial, with the apparant thoroughness by Judge Bridges, and with the fact that a Gregoire-friendly State Supreme Court seems unlikely to overrule, the election of '04 comes should come to close after nearly 7 months of political tug-of-war. Congratulations Governor Gregoire, looks like your healing tour will continue.
An observation and suggestion: a lot was made about how mistakes and errors are bound to happen in King County because it's the largest in the state - almost forecasting that future elections will have errors, and that's just the way it will be. Yet other smaller counties around the state showed they could conduct elections error-free, accurate to 100%. Well it sounds like the case has been clearly made to help out poor old King - by breaking it up. Cascade County might be the solution to help make sure the state of Washington doesn't have to go through this again.
Comments:
<< Home
The problem is not that KC is SO BIG. It is because it can say due to time restraints on Democratic voting precincts get mined for votes. THis has happened in Florida, Wisconson and in KC. Democrats when they run the show make certain their party votes count first and ignore any Republican precinct. Yes splitting KC will help enormously. Then stop paying for Mass transit, Light Rail and support only New lanes for driver not HOV lanes.
# posted by 
: 4:43 AM
: 4:43 AM
Since you're bandying statistics, I'll remind you that smaller counties being able to conduct elections to "100%" merely means their error rate was past a certain decimal where it no longer mattered. Mistakes are part of the real world.
Good analysis. I think you're right.
DB
Good analysis. I think you're right.
DB
# posted by : 5:23 AM
: 5:23 AM
I am sorry that your state didn't get the governor that they voted for 7 months ago. You would think Queen Christine would want a new election to clear the air and make her reign legitimate.
I suspect you are right - the judge will rule against the Republicans, and, by the way, the voters of Washington State. As a voter in 46 consecutive elections, I will never again believe that my vote counts.
# posted by : 8:07 AM
: 8:07 AM
If he rules against Rossi, I hope the R's drop it and move on (Ugh!)rather than take it to the Supreme Court.
That will only help in November and beyond.
That will only help in November and beyond.
# posted by : 8:35 AM
: 8:35 AM
We must know our votes count! The next step is to tighten voting requirements, cut way back on mail balloting, and overall make sure that legal votes are not cancelled out by ILLEGAL votes. I will be writing my representatives.
Post a Comment
# posted by : 10:27 AM
: 10:27 AM << Home
